Autocar - First for car news and reviews

phenergn March 12, 2008 4:47 PM

It's not just safety tech this is true of.

You can buy a Nissan Micra with parking sensors. Surely if you can't park a nissan micra without bashing into something then driving is just beyond you.

RobotBoogie March 12, 2008 5:59 PM

You're right James. Our grandparents drove hundreds of thousands of miles in unseatbelted cars that had never been crash tested. And they died in similar numbers, even some of those with superb driving skills. In a perfect world, we'd all be great drivers who had enjoyed a good night's sleep and didn't have a baby strapped into a carseat behind them. Until we achieve that state of grace, technology that saves lives should be adopted gratefully.

James Ruppert March 12, 2008 8:42 PM

Point taken, but it makes people too lazy and convinced that they can survive a crash. See further tailgaters...driving in fog at 70mph, I won't go on...

loather March 13, 2008 10:43 AM

James, very interesting subject.

One could take the 'bottom line' thesis, where the makers seek endlessly to add value and complexity to what is a pretty basic product in order to stand out, justify higher prices, incrementally. How else does a very mature product not suffer the fate of more commodity items like washing machines, that essentially cost the same price now as they did 25 years ago, a fraction of the price in real terms. Even washing machime makers and dishwasher makers try to add supposed useful features to justify the often two and three times price of their basic model range.

We know of course, especially over the last 30 years or so, the Germans have been unbelieveably successful at shifting units of premium products, not just in cars but high-end white goods too. However, I think the recent doubling of crude oil, from $55 to $110, and the entry of Renault's low-price Dacia world brand and Tata's £1000 car has definitely caused a psychological shift.

To come back to the Honda CR-V, who will base their purchase critically on a collision avoidance feature rather than the real fuel consumption, financing terms and VED/'purchase tax' from now on? Who out of the wage-earning hoi-poloi will pony up 20 grand plus in  readies when their outgoings are increasing at 20% a year? Will the makers still be offering 0% finance when the big banks are hoarding reserves?

I just get the feeling that the middle market in cars is coming back to earth with a bang. Yeah sure, exotica above 100K will still find a market. In fact over the last decade-long credit boom it is the richest 1% on the planet who have thrived. Hence the market for Rollers, Bentleys, high-end Beemers, Audis etc. should thrive on, short of a true societal breakdown - which shouldn't be written off.

No, the proliferation of bells and whistles on middle market cars has been driven primarily by the tumbling real cost of electronics and associated sensors. Hence parking aids, collision avoidance, lane deviation warning etc. All essentially pretty glorified 'Amstrad-type' stuff at base. I totally agree, cars are cars, meant to be driven, not operated like an ipod.

Now, due to the hyperinflating oil price and all other base materials for car manufacture - steel, plastics(oil), copper, even plant-based fibres for composite materials etc., the real interesting stuff ahead lies with small, light, space-efficient, i.e. rear-engined cars. Take a bow VW Up!. This and its like is surely the way ahead, not 1.5 tonne plus middle-market faux 4wd/mpvs. Again, small relatively uncomplicated powerplants like VW's TSI engines, not heavy, expensive, complex mild/full hybrids, especially diesels are the future for the next decade.

Last I'll say on this is, people seriously under-estimate the bust of the biggest ever credit bubble of last year. I guarantee, by 2010 the very last thing folk, and the makers belatedly, will be bothering about will be fancy, novel electonic 'driver aids'. Most ordinary folks will be at their wits end to afford to fill the tank, period. When petrol/diesel gets to 7, 8, 9 pounds a gallon in a year, as it will, due to the US Fed's deliberate devaluation of the dollar, and a mile costs nearly 50p in fuel alone to drive, no one, but no one will be concentrating on flashing lights and warning buzzerrs. In fact traffic where I live has already noticeably dropped off since Christmas, less than three months ago. The days of hairing around lackadaisically not paying attention on superfluous journeys is over. Crash avoidance? Maybe saluting infrequent oncoming drivers will return?

Lastly James. if I had more time I'd like to explore more with you the whole man/machine thing. I believe that the innate potential of mankind, individual men and women is being increasingly unused. The human being is a wonderful thing, infinitely complex and as a 'machine' still vastly superior in its true adapting intelligence to anything man himself has yet offered as supposed high-level artificial intelligence. Perhaps the rocketing cost of energy and basic commodites, whether justified by true diminshing supply or more likely speculative investment currently, will force most countries and their peoples who are not resource rich to focus back on the unused potential of the human being, and not to fall into machine-assisted, energy-intensive, slovenly ways, and that definitely inculdes not paying sufficient attention at the wheel and indeed enjoying driving for what it is in itself.

James Ruppert March 13, 2008 10:48 AM

I'm speechless/wordless. Very eloquently put and you are probably right on all points...

coolGav March 13, 2008 12:21 PM

I agree that we need cars to lose weight, and be able to use less fuel. If mild hybrids can be delivered without a weight penalty (ultra-capacitors and small batteries) for smaller, lighter cars, then fuel use could be significantly reduced. The fancy electronics being developed makes it possible to control the power-train.

I also whole-heartedly agree that driving needs to be a focussed event - free from distractions and with good primary safety. Secondary safety costs a lot more, in financial and weight terms.

Should the price of fuel rise significantly, then it will become uneconomic for far too many people to get to work (unless it's not very far, they car-share, or use alternate transport) - meaning an economic nightmare where things snowball until the population decreases to one that can survive from farming! Decrease the other motoring costs with a cheap basic car (depreciation, tax, insurance) and as the cost of fuel rises it's financially still possible to drive, since the car would then be 700kg doing 120mpg. The "gadgets" are responsible for using more fuel as they take power and have weight. They also give us a false sense of security.

However I wont be first in the queue for a Tata Nano style 0 NCAP star rated car with all the hulking trucks that are around (I'm talking about school run Mum's off-roaders that never venture even up a kerb). What can we do? Have physical width, height and weight restrictions on roads (much like there are already on the country roads I drive along - yet still large cars, vans, busses and coaches force you to take avoiding action). Car makers are pandering to the environmental lobbying, and creating cheaper cars, it's a natural progression - as long as people buy the right cars...

RobotBoogie March 13, 2008 12:54 PM

I'm at a bit of a loss as to how this debate moved from talking a collision warning system to one about the forthcoming apocalypse.

Basically, in the nicest way, you're all nutters.

a. James, people have tailgated for as long as there have been cars. Safety features have little impact on this. When people get behind the wheel, they do believe they are in an invincible bubble. Adding or removing safety features has only a marginal effect on this.

b. Loather - past fuel prices rises have resolutely failed to drive anyone in anything other than a marginal economic position out of their cars. There is no reason to expect that the current fuel price rises or any in the foreseeable future will do the same. Governments all over the world have failed almost completely to get people out of cars either with large, juicy carrots or extremely thorny sticks.

c. Gav - where are car makers pandering to environmental lobbying? In Europe, where they rode roughshod over the voluntary 130g/km agreement and protest vociferously at every new round of Euro emissions regulation? Or where the size and weight of the average car has increased exponentially over the last decade? Apart from a few isolated instances or at points where more environmentally friendly measures were zero cost, manufacturers have done almost nothing for the environment that hasn't been driven by tax or legislation.

loather March 13, 2008 2:35 PM

RobotBoogie,

appreciate given your name that you will have been disappointed when this blog discussion moved away from its subject, machines, but I was merely wishing to bring to James's attention that, in my opinion, for what it's worth, the proliferation of electronic-based driving aids in fairly mainstream cars will almost certainly have to give way to more pressing matters by dint of the impending US/UK/worldwide? economic downturn. These driving aids are being used currently as a marketing diferentiator in an increasingly saturated market, especially in soft-roader/faux 4x4s/medium mpvs, like the Honda CR-V, with the recent addition of the VW Tiguan, and soon  Ford Kuga, Mercedes GLK and Audi Q5.

Secondly Robotboogie I was not talking about forcing people out of cars. I am not some covert public transport versus private car ownership stirrer. You misunderstand me. My point is RB that we are now entering quite possibly the deepest downturn in the world economy - certainly the US and most likely the UK - since at least The Great Depression of the 1930s. This is not even going to be a repeat of the stagflation of the 1970s in Britain, where after the 1973 Israeli-Arab war, the price of crude doubled in price almost overnight and in the UK and the US car makers put all their efforts in to small economy cars. So it's not going to be a question of how high will fuel have to go before people abandon their cars for public transport; besides, unlike the '70s UK public transport prices are on a par if not dearer than private transportation. The whole ten year old 'Transport 2000'-type agenda is bogus and now completely irrelevant.

CoolGav above refers to fuel becoming so expensive that people won't be able to afford to go to work anymore. Don't fear CG, before that happens the work being commuted to will have long disappeared. What do you think is the graeatest driver of input costs to nearly all economic activity? Yeah that's right - OIL! The businesses currently on the margin will be and already are being overwhelmed by a 30% annual input cost rise. It is only a matter of time before UK's overbalanced services, and financial services in particular, economy implodes. The pyramid house-price scheme was its main prop.

This brings us back to James's original rise of the machines subject blog. I agree with him 100%; cars have become push-button appliances, overburdened with superfluous 'kit'. It's quite possible that a rapid economic belt-tightening will give all of us the opportunity to focus back on the wondrous core utility of a car and once again appreciate its basic functions without sat-navs, ipod connection points, reversing cameras/DVD players etc.. That's why I mentioned VW's Up! concept, premiered last year in Frankfurt. It and its later presented spin offs excite me with their genuine novelty and stripped down core appeal, from both a driving enthusiast point of view and as a car industry aficionado.

RobotBoogie March 13, 2008 4:34 PM

Loather, there's almost too much to tackle there but let's starts with the worldwide depression that you seem to think is certain. I don't have too much faith in economists but this is the first I have heard of it. However, let's say you are right, in which case there won't be a new car market to speak of, so that would cure the gadget problem. But if you are wrong, then anyone who has spent more than 10 minutes in a car showroom will tell you that gadgets with even a modicum of utility sell cars.

James Ruppert March 13, 2008 5:18 PM

Glad that we are all so passionate about this, it is sad that there seems to be posters who hate people and cars in equal measure. Buyers can be sold driving pleasure and involvement as I had the pleasure of selling the ultimate driving machine for a few years back before gadgets became so bewildering. For one I concentrate a lot more in basic, so called harder to drive cars, than mobile sofas....

loather March 13, 2008 5:18 PM

RobotBoogie(RB),

thanks for taking the time to wade through my thoughts. And you're right - it's the gadgets that sells them!

As to the 'economic armageddon around the corner' theory, I'm afraid that what you say - 'first I've heard of it' - may serve as testament to the effectiveness of the 'mainstream' media in keeping the real, serious news hidden - don't spook the sheep! You don't have to go far though even within mainstream news sources nowadays to witness what is coming down the turnpike. For instance, the Telegraph today devotes two key articles in 'Business' section to the UK's/US's economic woes. See:

1. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 'US mortgage implosion set to blow Darling's Budget to pieces'

www.telegraph.co.uk/.../main.jhtml

2. Liam Halligan 'Budget 2008: Treasury spin will fail to hide Labour's fiscal meltdown'  www.telegraph.co.uk/.../main.jhtml

As a flavour of what's out there in the 'alternative' media on the Web have a look at this piece by Mike Whitney commenting on the latest 'shock-and-awe' actions of the US Fed central bank to once and for all cure the credit crisis and his view that as before it's doomed - the credit bubble has to be let deflate. Means bankruptcy from the biggest bank right down to the little guy.

counterpunch.org/whitney03132008.html

coolGav March 14, 2008 9:51 AM

"where are car makers pandering to environmental lobbying?"

Well there's this thing called a Prius that Hollywood seems to rate highly (though I don't, but then it's not aimed at me). BMW with their efficient dynamics program, and the significantly high sales of diesel engined cars has meant they have developed better, more fuel efficient engines. I think lobbying was probably the wrong word to use, perhaps they're "not neglecting the needs of the green thinkers". Reducing our impact on the environment isn't going to benefit us, but future generations - personally I want them to have at least the same quality of life I have.

The ever increasing size of car is interesting. Ford discontinued the Granda/Scorpio class car, but now they have the mondeo the same size. The Fiesta was small, now it's not there's the Ka. Cars are growing, to fit in all the technology! Smaller ones keep popping up.

I enjoy driving when there's a clear road, and I can focus being at-one with the car. The roads (in SE England) get so busy, that it's too easy to forget what it's like to have an enjoyable drive. So instead everyone adds in entertainment to while away the journey, and these distractions mean more technology to keep the driver focussed on driving, and avoid an accident, or lessen its impact. I wont give up my iPod until I can get the satisfaction from hooking up corner after corner, rather than being forced to brake while someone decides the road is too narrow for them and the oncoming vehicle, or they need to answer the phone.

JJBoxster March 18, 2008 2:39 AM

James, I'd like to lower the tone of this blog and suggest you replace the polystyrene block with Alistair Darling.